Has COVID-19 suppressed dengue transmission in Nepal?

Following the report of the first COVID-19 case in Nepal on 23 January 2020, three major waves were documented between 2020 and 2021. By the end of July 2022, 986 596 cases of confirmed COVID-19 and 11 967 deaths had been reported and 70.5% of the population had received at least two doses of a COVID-19 vaccine. Prior to the pandemic, a large dengue virus (DENV) epidemic affected 68 out of 77 districts, with 17 932 cases and six deaths recorded in 2019. In contrast, the country's Epidemiology and Disease Control Division reported 530 and 540 dengue cases in the pandemic period (2020 and 2021), respectively. Furthermore, Kathmandu reported just 63 dengue cases during 2020 and 2021, significantly lower than the 1463 cases reported in 2019. Serological assay showed 3.2% positivity rates for anti-dengue immunoglobulin M antibodies during the pandemic period, contrasting with 26.9-40% prior to it. Real-time polymerase chain reaction for DENV showed a 0.5% positive rate during the COVID-19 pandemic which is far lower than the 57.0% recorded in 2019. Continuing analyses of dengue incidence and further strengthening of surveillance and collaboration at the regional and international levels are required to fully understand whether the reduction in dengue incidence/transmission were caused by movement restrictions during the COVID-19 pandemic.

Same day discharge for robot-assisted radical prostatectomy: a prospective cohort study documenting an Australian approach.

BACKGROUND: The introduction of robotic surgical systems has significantly impacted urological surgery, arguably more so than other surgical disciplines. The focus of our study was length of hospital stay - patients have traditionally been discharged day 1 post-robot-assisted radical prostatectomy (RARP), however, during the ongoing COVID-19 pandemic and consequential resource limitations, our centre has facilitated a cohort of same-day discharges with initial success. METHODS: We conducted a prospective tertiary single-centre cohort study of a series of all patients (n = 28) - undergoing RARP between January and April 2021. All patients were considered for a day zero discharge pathway which consisted of strict inclusion criteria. At follow-up, each patient's perspective on their experience was assessed using a validated post-operative satisfaction questionnaire. Data were reviewed retrospectively for all those undergoing RARP over the study period, with day zero patients compared to overnight patients. RESULTS: Overall, 28 patients 20 (71%) fulfilled the objective criteria for day zero discharge. Eleven patients (55%) agreed pre-operatively to day zero discharge and all were successfully discharged on the same day as their procedure. There was no statistically significant difference in age, BMI, ASA, Charlson score or disease volume. All patients indicated a high level of satisfaction with their procedure. Median time from completion of surgery to discharge was 426 min (7.1 h) in the day zero discharge cohort. CONCLUSION: Day zero discharge for RARP appears to deliver high satisfaction, oncological and safety outcomes. Therefore, our study demonstrates early success with unsupported same-day discharge in carefully selected and pre-counselled patients.

How an Outbreak of COVID-19 Circulated Widely in Nepal: A Chronological Analysis of the National Response to an Unprecedented Pandemic.

Coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) is caused by the severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2). The first COVID-19 case was reported in Wuhan, China, in December 2019. In March 2020, the World Health Organization (WHO) declared COVID-19 a global pandemic. The first COVID-19 case in Nepal was reported in January 2020 in a Nepalese man who had returned from Wuhan to Nepal. This study aims to evaluate the government of Nepal's (GoN) response to the COVID-19 pandemic and explore ways to prevent COVID-19 and other pandemic diseases in the future. As of May 2022, a total of 979,140 cases and 11,951 deaths associated with COVID-19 have been reported in Nepal. To prevent the spread of the virus, the GoN initiated various preventive and control measures, including lockdown strategies. The effects of COVID-19 are expected to persist for many years; the best strategies a resource-limited country such as Nepal can implement to control pandemic diseases such as COVID-19 in the pre-vaccine stage are to increase testing, tracing, and isolation capacity.

Open science communication: The first year of the UK's Independent Scientific Advisory Group for Emergencies.

The COVID-19 pandemic has shone a light on the complex relationship between science and policy. Policymakers have had to make decisions at speed in conditions of uncertainty, implementing policies that have had profound consequences for people's lives. Yet this process has sometimes been characterised by fragmentation, opacity and a disconnect between evidence and policy. In the United Kingdom, concerns about the secrecy that initially surrounded this process led to the creation of Independent SAGE, an unofficial group of scientists from different disciplines that came together to ask policy-relevant questions, review the evolving evidence, and make evidence-based recommendations. The group took a public health approach with a population perspective, worked in a holistic transdisciplinary way, and were committed to public engagement. In this paper, we review the lessons learned during its first year. These include the importance of learning from local expertise, the value of learning from other countries, the role of civil society as a critical friend to government, finding appropriate relationships between science and policy, and recognising the necessity of viewing issues through an equity lens.

Vaccinating adolescents against SARS-CoV-2 in England: a risk-benefit analysis.

OBJECTIVE: To offer a quantitative risk-benefit analysis of two doses of SARS-CoV-2 vaccination among adolescents in England. SETTING: England. DESIGN: Following the risk-benefit analysis methodology carried out by the US Centers for Disease Control, we calculated historical rates of hospital admission, Intensive Care Unit admission and death for ascertained SARS-CoV-2 cases in children aged 12-17 in England. We then used these rates alongside a range of estimates for incidence of long COVID, vaccine efficacy and vaccine-induced myocarditis, to estimate hospital and Intensive Care Unit admissions, deaths and cases of long COVID over a period of 16 weeks under assumptions of high and low case incidence. PARTICIPANTS: All 12-17 year olds with a record of confirmed SARS-CoV-2 infection in England between 1 July 2020 and 31 March 2021 using national linked electronic health records, accessed through the British Heart Foundation Data Science Centre. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES: Hospitalisations, Intensive Care Unit admissions, deaths and cases of long COVID averted by vaccinating all 12-17 year olds in England over a 16-week period under different estimates of future case incidence. RESULTS: At high future case incidence of 1000/100,000 population/week over 16 weeks, vaccination could avert 4430 hospital admissions and 36 deaths over 16 weeks. At the low incidence of 50/100,000/week, vaccination could avert 70 hospital admissions and two deaths over 16 weeks. The benefit of vaccination in terms of hospitalisations in adolescents outweighs risks unless case rates are sustainably very low (below 30/100,000 teenagers/week). Benefit of vaccination exists at any case rate for the outcomes of death and long COVID, since neither have been associated with vaccination to date. CONCLUSIONS: Given the current (as at 15 September 2021) high case rates (680/100,000 population/week in 10-19 year olds) in England, our findings support vaccination of adolescents against SARS-CoV2.

Complete Genome Sequence of a 2019 Novel Coronavirus (SARS-CoV-2) Strain Isolated in Nepal.

A complete genome sequence was obtained for a severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) strain isolated from an oropharyngeal swab specimen of a Nepalese patient with coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19), who had returned to Nepal after traveling to Wuhan, China.

Effective immunity and second waves: a dynamic causal modelling study.

This technical report addresses a pressing issue in the trajectory of the coronavirus outbreak; namely, the rate at which effective immunity is lost following the first wave of the pandemic. This is a crucial epidemiological parameter that speaks to both the consequences of relaxing lockdown and the propensity for a second wave of infections. Using a dynamic causal model of reported cases and deaths from multiple countries, we evaluated the evidence models of progressively longer periods of immunity. The results speak to an effective population immunity of about three months that, under the model, defers any second wave for approximately six months in most countries. This may have implications for the window of opportunity for tracking and tracing, as well as for developing vaccination programmes, and other therapeutic interventions.

'Dark matter', second waves and epidemiological modelling.

Recent reports using conventional Susceptible, Exposed, Infected and Removed models suggest that the next wave of the COVID-19 pandemic in the UK could overwhelm health services, with fatalities exceeding the first wave. We used Bayesian model comparison to revisit these conclusions, allowing for heterogeneity of exposure, susceptibility and transmission. We used dynamic causal modelling to estimate the evidence for alternative models of daily cases and deaths from the USA, the UK, Brazil, Italy, France, Spain, Mexico, Belgium, Germany and Canada over the period 25 January 2020 to 15 June 2020. These data were used to estimate the proportions of people (i) not exposed to the virus, (ii) not susceptible to infection when exposed and (iii) not infectious when susceptible to infection. Bayesian model comparison furnished overwhelming evidence for heterogeneity of exposure, susceptibility and transmission. Furthermore, both lockdown and the build-up of population immunity contributed to viral transmission in all but one country. Small variations in heterogeneity were sufficient to explain large differences in mortality rates. The best model of UK data predicts a second surge of fatalities will be much less than the first peak. The size of the second wave depends sensitively on the loss of immunity and the efficacy of Find-Test-Trace-Isolate-Support programmes. In summary, accounting for heterogeneity of exposure, susceptibility and transmission suggests that the next wave of the SARS-CoV-2 pandemic will be much smaller than conventional models predict, with less economic and health disruption. This heterogeneity means that seroprevalence underestimates effective herd immunity and, crucially, the potential of public health programmes.

Effective immunity and second waves: a dynamic causal modelling study [version 1;peer review: awaiting peer review]

This technical report addresses a pressing issue in the trajectory of the coronavirus outbreak;namely, the rate at which effective immunity is lost following the first wave of the pandemic. This is a crucial epidemiological parameter that speaks to both the consequences of relaxing lockdown and the propensity for a second wave of infections. Using a dynamic causal model of reported cases and deaths from multiple countries, we evaluated the evidence models of progressively longer periods of immunity. The results speak to an effective population immunity of about three months that, under the model, defers any second wave for approximately six months in most countries. This may have implications for the window of opportunity for tracking and tracing, as well as for developing vaccination programmes, and other therapeutic interventions.